which of the following terms most accurately describes the international economy today? This is a topic that many people are looking for. accountabilitynowpac.com is a channel providing useful information about learning, life, digital marketing and online courses …. it will help you have an overview and solid multi-faceted knowledge . Today, accountabilitynowpac.com would like to introduce to you Economists forecast sharper GDP drop due to coronavirus crisis . Following along are instructions in the video below:
“Meantime. There s not been much to smile about these days when it comes to to jobs data as millions head to the unemployment lines. But yesterday. St.
Louis fed jim bullard said the us economy is not in freefall despite a 32 point a 32 percent unemployment projection. Steve liesman. Joins us now with his take on mr. Bullards comments and more steve.
What do you make of that because he s been morning additive and negative. He thinks there s a he think there s a v shape. And this right yeah. You know that s sort of the consensus out there.
And do that um you have this very steep drop. And it s followed by a reasonably strong rebound. Though there is some debate about that we retaliate our averages. And what s happened is most of the consist consensus now has move towards the worst case scenario in the second quarter and then a bounce back let me show you the numbers that we compiled over the weekend after that terrible jobs report.
The first thing. That s happened is everybody agrees the first quarter. Which was going to be positive now is a negative quarter of minus 5..
Percent. That s the consensus view. 7. Forecasters.
Including in this poll. 27. Decline. Now.
Remember we had those eye popping numbers. 25. 30. Per.
Couple. Folks. Everybody is now on board with this idea that once you layer in the stimulus. Which is important here and then you count what s left in terms of the the losses would have about a 30 call it the decline in economic activity.
That s followed by a 14 rebound and a 10 in the fourth quarter and then again above trend. So it s not exactly a v. It s kind of call..
It a modified v. Which is a boat term by the way. But in any event. You have this bounce back in this in the third quarter fourth quarter and first quarter.
But it s not necessarily a short oxford economics went back and they studied a bunch of other kind of shocks to the system like this let me tell you what they wrote in their study. The coronavirus may trigger annual gdp declines among the worst seen in the last hundred years. Okay we know that the economy s can bounce back sharply that s good news after such declines. But our analysis suggests output losses also endure in a significant number of cases.
The pen on the kind of shock. That s out there as to whether or not you get the bounce back. Also critical is the assistance that we get or that the government does provide very critical to outcomes and goldman sachs. Says.
You know what we re gonna need more further fiscal support. They said this morning for the economy looks likely to be needed. The measures enacted to date. While substantial are not yet equal to the lost income due to covin.
19. That we expect did some back to the envelope work with john riding over the weekend. There are some holes particularly the biggest hole pointed out by goldman guys is the assistance of the federal government to the states because when you figure..
What s been lost you figure. The government keeps paying well that can only be true. If the federal government helps the state. So that might be andrew the next area of assistance out there hey steve.
The big question. I d ask is the timeline that these economists are using when you hear. Jim bullet or others talk about a view or something a modified v or whatever you want to describe. It as is is the view.
When you when you hear from them at least on our show. They often talk about the world coming back online in june. Or even may what i don t understand that when i m trying to grapple with is you hear from dr. Scott ghalib.
And so many other health officials to say sure we may all be back at some kind of modified work coming back online. Then. But we ll all be wearing gloves will barely be wearing masks. We re not going to be getting on airplanes.
We re not going to be eating at restaurants. We re not going to be going to hotels. We re not going to be belling up to the bar going to sporting events all of those things not going to walk into a bookstore..
You know all of those things that would have happened and i just want to understand if that s baked into and by the way. He s suggesting that may not happen through the fall not just the summer. But through the fall through the fall and potentially even into the winter. I asked him by whether you get on a plane to go you know to visit family at thanksgiving.
Yeah is that baked in no no andrew. Let s let me let me be clear about the trajectory of this. The economist s are not leading the epidemiologists on this they know that would be stupid. They re following.
And what s happened is a decline in the outlook relative to increases in the forecast of the severity of the disease. The contagion of disease and the length of the shutdown. So right now they re baking in this idea that by the third quarter america gets back to work. And you would have a fairly powerful rebound in gdp if that happens.
However if all the things i mean look who would i rather listen to jpmorgan those guys are very smart. I ve listened to scott gottlieb over mike for olli any day with no disrespect to mike for olli and i think mike for olli from jp morgan would say the same thing so they re following this outlook. And it may be andrew that what we get is a second downgrade to the third quarter. If the shutdown lasts longer you ” .
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CNBC s Steve Liesman reports on the latest insights from economists and other experts regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
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